Well, I guess that the campaigns for state seats has started. I recieved a letter asking me to support a candidate for the seat that Sen. Colgan currently occupies. Many suspect that he is going to retire. Others are convinced he’s running again. I don’t have any idea. The list of people running for that seat gets longer and then shorter, depending on who you talk to…;) I think it’s pretty well known that Mr. Fitzsimmonds is interested in the seat – he was the republican nominee last time. Many suspect that Del. Miller is interested in the seat as well. I haven’t really talked to him about it but it seems a logical idea. Of course, if he runs for senate then his house seat is in the mix.
The pin-action is almost endless: if the house seat is open then you could have a city politician run for that seat. If that works, we could be looking for a Council member or Mayor! At this point, it’s all a deep, dark cave of speculation. The only light I can cast on the situaiton is this: I ain’t running for any office that is located in Richmond.
The other variable is redistricting. I’m not an expert on how all of this works but I would guess that it makes it difficult to run for office when you aren’t even sure what the district will look like. That’s a huge deal. I believe that redistricting will happen in a special session after the normal GA session. In any event, I expect we’ll hear some announcements soon.
December 31, 2010 at 1:07 pm
I’m actually kinda surprised it took this long. They gave it almost a two month break since the last election!
December 31, 2010 at 3:35 pm
Our local state delegates and senators are slated
to hold a “Town Hall” meeting at Manassas City Hall on
Jan. 3rd at 7pm. Assume all the key players
will attend – both those in office and those seeking one.
The public is invited.
January 1, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Redistricting is actually the primary variable – who will jump ship is all secondary. And within the shuffling of the lines, it breaks further into House and Senate. The realignment of the Magisterial Districts is a minor variable, but will play in too.
So let’s look at the House: presently the 50th is the two Cities plus (if I read the map right) four voting places in the County (2 each Brentsville and Gainesville areas – again if I read the little map right).
Given the total area went over 400,000 by the Census, In PWC, at least on how Wally Covington addressed the Commission on Aging last May, they could either maintain the seven which exist now, or find the million bucks and stand up an 8th District – that one, by one wise person on the PW Republican Committee who told me last week, would pull some out of Gainesville & Brentsville (the two big ones) and form what used to be the old Manassas District. Any way or shape they do it, it will shift around the polling places and impact the 50th.
All that population growth and shifting around also is going to impact Loudoun – and the 13th District. One thought expressed was with the population of Loudoun & PWC, maybe there would be creation of possibly two more House and one more Senate.
Creating those would also be a gamechanger depending on how the lines get drawn, although I expect the two Cities to remain plopped in one House District.
Over on the Senate side: the 29th is a BIG chunck of land; as are most of them. There may be some line moving there, and that might shift the 36th a bit (Sen. Puller) and the 39th (Sen. Barker).
One scenario has the 36th pulling back a bit, and the 39th moving in a bit. Another has those two shifting, and the 29th broken into two Senate Districts. If the 29th splits, that also becomes a gamechanger – especially if they pull that little piece of the 28th down just before the bridge into Stafford County up into PWC.
The GA is supposed to get to it not later than April – although I expect sooner myself. Not a whole lot of Bills prefiled is a good indicator of that. Senator Whipple told the Northern VA Aging Network she is not submitting any bills since as Chair on the Senate side, that is where her focus will be,
According to the info at State Website, the GA in June is supposed to have it all locked down. That leaves July – September for the Registrars to get the necessary paperwork in and notify voters of their new precincts for the November election.
Nice that possible canditates are seeking support, but the “game is afoot” as Sherlock says, and jumping ship will have to wait six months.
Nice to see, Andy, your wish to remain a local leader!
January 3, 2011 at 10:31 am
Another redistricting variable is the whole Justice Dept. approval/oversight process. Basically, any changes to the districts need to be approved by DOJ, per the 60’s era voters rights act. Since the Dems are going to be feeling additional post-election pain stemming from redistricting, it is not inconceivable that the Holder Justice Department would try to limit the partisan damage as much as possible.
It is going to be a very active nomination process, and election cycle. Being part of the machinery, I am just enjoying the calm before the storm. Sometimes makes me wish my hobby was golf instead.
January 4, 2011 at 8:45 am
Steve, I can see how golf and the upcoming scamble are similar….
In golf, you whack a ball downrange then chase after it.
With the upcoming stuff, names are going to whacked downrange, then people chase after them.
Seems like a similar game…just no eagles 🙂
January 6, 2011 at 11:42 am
http://www.vml.org/VTC/VTCindex.html
FYI: May want to read “A 5-minute (or so)
guide to the 2011 General Assembly” in the
Dec. 2010 edition of Virginia Town&City.
January 6, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Interesting to see what the local issues are….which don’t match what the press will write about. Thanks, Steve.