I'm really late with this. Wasn't going to publish it but I changed my mind……
Well, the election is over and Mr. Obama is getting a second term. Congratulations to him, I hope he works with his partners in Congress to keep our country out of the ditch. I've had folks ask me why I think he lost: did the Obama folks "micro-target" more effectively? Was Mr. Romney unlikable? Wrong strategy?
I believe our downfall as republicans is rooted is 2 very important and distinct issues:
1: Mr. Romney needed to run as a businessman and "fixer" in order to win. It's what he is and a successful candidate for any higher office has to run a campaign that is true to himself. You might get away with that crap at the local level forever and at the state level for a couple of years but not in the big leagues. His stump speech needed to be about a minute long: "I'm a businessman and a capitalist. I made a living fixing companies. Sometimes there was some tough love involved but I'm a businessman. I don't apologize for it. I fixed the Olympics. I was Governor of MA and worked with anyone I could to better my state. I've done it before and I'll do it again." That's it. Mr. Romney isn't a wild-eyed pistol waver social conservative. He's a businessman conservative. Having to deal with "trans-vaginal ultrasounds", "rape is god's will" and that super genius who indicated that womens bodies can shut down conception in cases of rape was not productive. You might dispute the individual incidents but the cumulative impact is hard to deny. The insistence of our own General Assembly to introduce and pass the ultrasound bill most likely cost our Governor a serious shot at the VP slot. I'm sure that as soon as the Romney campaign got a load of "conservatives" mandating internal ultrasounds they didn't just erase Bob's name, they cut it out of the page. The Democrats (wisely, in their case) made electoral hay of this and turned it into a "War on Women". Whether or not you believe that doesn't matter. Plenty of women certainly did and the Democrats messaged on it constantly. Ironically, this same issue also cost Mr. Romney votes on the far right social conservative side. Pretty sure Mr. Romney's handling of those hot spots didn't lead them to conclude that their social conservative agenda was a priority of his – I know I wouldn't have if that was my priority.
2: The GOP's got a serious demographic problem. Immigration (of whatever form – right, wrong or indifferent) has changed the electoral landscape in many important swing states – including Virginia. Mr. Romney didn't do real well with that segment. He also didn't do very well with the lady-folk. Neither is a huge shock: Mr. Romney took an early position on immigration that had something to do with "self-deportation" that didn't make much sense. He then switched to a position in early October that seemed to say that he was going to continue the current policy but reform it in unspecified ways after elected. So, the top of the ticket is dodging and the GOP at-large is mistrusted by Latino voters. That can only end poorly. Especially when you're running against a guy who is on the stump, banging the podium for equality and inclusion.
Those two problems were external to the campaign but they did exert a strong influence. Many point out that Romney was a deeply flawed candidate who couldn't draw the party together. In that much I somewhat agree: I believe Mr. Romney had all of the right pieces to win but there was always that nagging suspicion that Romney was just telling you what you wanted to hear. If you were outside that prime target funnel – a businessman conservative – you never quite believed what the Romney folks told you. Many insist they would have had more regard for Mr. Romney had he just told them exactly what he thought and stood his ground. While I think that's probably true on an individual basis I don't believe it in terms of the larger factions inside the republican party.
Ironically, it probably didn't really matter who ran against Mr. Obama. None of the candidates in the republican primary really had an over-arching agenda for America – or lacked one that appealed outside their base. It was a wacky mix of SoCon orthodoxy, Tea partiers, strange businessmen and political has-beens. So, failing that, your tact is to wallow in the mud with the incumbent and at that point, he's got you. It's a battle of inches, not ideas.
