A little here and there Politics

First things first.  From a purely political point of view, Paul Ryan should avoid that Speakers job like the plague.  He's been successful where he is because it's his thing.  Speakers also tend to have a pretty short tenure and it's pretty obvious that Ryan, like most state and federal electeds are career politicians.  Once they get that taste of power they don't want to let it go.  I really haven't seen any writing or thinking on this that's worth a damn but my own thoughts (not that they're any better) are that even if Ryan accepts the job and names his price that things will rapidly devolve into a food fight again.  The only question is how fast things fall apart.  If Boehner decides to do the heavy lifting and clear the field for Ryan by doing the debt ceiling, budget and Ex-Im bank, Ryan would get a pretty clean slate and could operate in the clear for about 6 months.  If he can make his reform work from Ways and Means the centerpiece of his agenda he might even get a year out of it.

However, sooner or later he's going to have to pass a budget or increase a debt limit or even conduct business in a manner that the "freedom caucus" or someone else doesn't like and that'll be the end of it.  Nope, I think he should stay miles away from it and just let this thing sort itself out.  The situation in the Republican party needs to come to a head and Ryan's throwing the party a lifeline simply delays the eventual catharsis and ruins his life in the short term.  Party elders are wringing their hands about how the mess on Capital Hill might "infect" next years presidential race…..too late for that.  Might as well let the thing go on and happen. 

My own thoughts on the matter are that I think the Tea party guys in Congress make good points and something needs to be done about federal spending.  They're pulling whatever levers they can reach to get some reform moving but making a fair number of enemies along the way.  That's fine I guess, this ain't a popularity contest but allies make life easier.  I don't know enough about the House Rules reform they want but maybe it's time for some changes there as well.

In local politics, we've got a house and senate seat up for grabs in the General Assembly.  Jackson Miller would appear to have a pretty easy ride this time.  His district is a pretty safe R district (at least that's my take) and, while I know he has an opponent, I don't know his name…come to think of it, I don't think I've even seen a sign for him.  The senate seat is an interesting race.  Mr. Colgan, after many long years of service has decided to retire so his seat is open.  It's a democrat-leaning district – I think 5-7 points.  Our own Hal Parrish is running against Jeremy McPike.  Hal seems to be working hard – he was out knocking doors in Old Town about 3-4 weeks ago and I know he spent time down in the other end of the county over the summer so he's doing what he needs to do.  We're getting a fair amount of mail from his campaign as well.  Not that I would expect to but I haven't gotten anything from McPike.  Hal's got ads everywhere on Facebook, etc.  Honestly, if he doesn't win it won't be because he didn't do all the stuff he needed to do.  My more politically savvy friends seem to think this is a tall hill for the Mayor to climb – due to the composition of the district – but I think he'll get it done.

Of course, if Hal does win then all sorts of pieces could end up in motion.  The Council would have to appoint a Mayor and if they appoint one of their own then they'll need to appoint a Council member!  I suppose they could pass on the appointment and ask the Circuit court to set an election but that seems like a lot of wasted effort and money when there's already an election next November.  What's been done in the past is the Council asks people to submit a statement of interest and a resume and then there's a public interview process.  I would think they'd do that again but it's really up to them.  I've no idea what that is going to end up looking like.  That's a lot of change right in the heat of the budget process!!