I'm actually writing this on Sunday afternoon so we'll see how politically astute I really am. Based on my political career the answer is "not very". People frequently ask me how I think the election for local office will turn out. I usually shrug. There are so many moving parts to this particular election:
1. Moving the election to November is bound to have a profound effect on the results. There will be an entirely new group of folks voting in the fall that didn't vote in the spring elections. Manassas has gone democrat the past 5? statewide and federal elections – elections conducted in the fall. The first Obama election I discount somewhat as he could have defeated George Washington at that point in history.
2. The top of the Democratic ticket – Mark Warner – has had some recent struggles but will help down ticket candidates. Of course, Mrs. Comstock will perform well but the democrats are making predictable (and deserved) hay concerning her support of that crazy trans-vaginal ultrasound bill down in Richmond. Stuff like that will limit her crossover appeal. Mr. Warner has always enjoyed healthy crossover support amongst moderate R's so net-net I think Warner is a stronger influence on the down ballot races.
3. The Schools – a couple of board members and a bunch of parents – have roused themselves from their decade long slumber and are active in the election. Some bemoan this, I think they're an interest group just like the pro-life crowd who wants to advance an agenda. I think there are two positives to take from this: the first is that the more people who are involved in improving the schools and our wider community, the better. The schools are among the most important things we do. The second is, the more folks who get out and vote, the better.
4. The democrats have a couple of local candidates at least one of whom will be elected. This has the potential to drive some turnout amongst local democrats who might not otherwise bother.
5. The social conservatives will turn out to support Marc. That's normally around 1,000 votes in the bag for him but may be more since more people are voting. They're unlikely to vote for anyone else on the local level.
6. The democrats have located their offices inside of the City for the past 4 election cycles. The republicans have moved theirs to the west. I think it's more than symbolic.
7. More people appear to be paying attention to what's going in city politics and how their elected leaders are voting – and forcing those elected folks to defend their votes. I've had it happen to me over the past few years and I see Marc and Sheryl having to explain their positions during the candidate forums. This trend could turn ugly at some point but I don't think it's happened yet.
8. We don't have a newspaper anymore. Most information about the candidates is coming out in social media, blog posts and YouTube. This is both interesting and troubling. We need a newspaper or news website again.
9. The Tea party. I really don't have any idea how active the Tea party guys are in Manassas. I know that there were members at Marc's rally in the park but that's all I know. Their website is currently offline with an error about the "votemarcav_app" which would appear to be something they're doing in support of Marc. They've been involved before and can make a difference but I don't know about now.
That's about all I have and these comments obviously ignore the power of incumbency, etc, etc. This is all pretty specific to Manassas. I'm not going to handicap this race – there are just too many moving parts. For anyone that cares, I'll be working for Sheryl at Baldwin most of the day. Didn't hear from the republicans about an organized effort until Ian forwarded me their email – guess mine landed in the spam bucket…but Sheryl asked me last week to help her and I'm happy to help a sista out.
November 3, 2014 at 12:07 pm
Andy, Manassas City went "R" in the 2010 mid-term, and was a clean sweep in the 2009 State election. The city split the vote in November 2011, going R for House, D for Senate. It went "D" for the 2008 Presidential, and Senate, but R for Congress. Same again in 2012, so I'm not sure your assertion "Manassas has gone democrat the past 5? statewide and federal elections – elections conducted in the fall." is all that accurate. May locals have historically been a local GOP event.
I agree that having locals in November really shakes up the dynamic, and how the up-ticket races will impact the turn-out, and thus the final local results, is pure speculation at this point. If, as the prognosticators are begining to shout, this is a GOP wave year, how will this impact the locals? All I know is it's costing more the individual campaigns.
November 3, 2014 at 12:29 pm
Note that three School Board incumbents are up tomorrow
– unopposed. Good folks, but surprised the election was
uncontested.
November 3, 2014 at 1:08 pm
Thanks Steve. I wasn't exactly sure, hence the "?".
November 3, 2014 at 1:34 pm
Something interesting though, Manassas City may be a true "bellweather" jurisdiction. As far as I can tell, going back to the 2000 Presidential cycle, the winner in the City has been the eventual winner in their race, be they a presidential candidate, or for state or constitutional office. This might explain why starting with the 2008 cycle, the Democrats have placed an HQ in Manassas. Think about it.
November 3, 2014 at 1:36 pm
Agreed. You're actually a lot better at this kind of stuff….probably should have had a guest post!
November 3, 2014 at 3:33 pm
Republicans have held a 5-1 majority on Council plus the
Mayor's seat in Manassas for over twenty years.
And, no matter what happens tomorrow, they will have
a majority for at least two more years.
November 3, 2014 at 8:32 pm
Andy, I ditto your comment that Manassas needs a newspaper.
Those who get their news from blog posts are basically ill-informed. They are getting their info already filtered by someone else. I don't know of a single blogger who doeesn't have a point of view. There is no raw news.
I really miss the Journal Messenger.
November 4, 2014 at 7:31 am
I think it says something that about a month ago I went on the local GOP web site and there were links to online sites for Gillespie and Comstock et al but not a single link to anything online for Aveni or Bass and no mention of School Board candidates.
As for a local paper, the only way I think we will ever get one back is if it's a subsidiary of one of the "big media" papers. Those ALL editorially slant heavily liberal, so it's hard to imagine we could ever get a local dead tree newspaper that is objective. Objective journalism in this country is dying. Plus the reality is that as our population ages and demographics shift to a younger crowd that wants news NOW, not tomorrow, printed newspapers will soon go the way of vinyl records and horse drawn buggies. It won't be next year, or probably not even in 5 years, but getting news delivered every morning to your home or office that you have to unfold to read and then toss/recycle when you're done is rapidly being displaced by smartphones and tablets. WaPo, NYT, WSJ, etc are all bleeding subscribers, and advertisers (the people that REALLY pay for that newspaper you get) can't justify buying ads that fewer and fewer people see every day, and practically nobody would be willing to pay the real cost they would have to charge without advertisers picking up the lions share of it.
November 4, 2014 at 10:33 am
The "social media" sites this election were very troubling. Way to much "spin for their side" and when called out on their missrepresentations they wouldn't "man up" and fully explain why they said what they said. When I asked one of the representatives about an issue where Manassas was in the top 5% of all Virginia communities I was ignored. It was like "yes, Manassas gets an "A" in that but we missed question 12 on the exam". So they spouted question 12 like the City was falling apart. They posted an old picture of a street that had been repaved saying the streets were falling apart. False and misleading information. Again, if you're gonna post and complain, pick a real issue to complain about and if you are caught with missleading information, have the guts to "man-up" and admit it.
November 4, 2014 at 10:53 am
I'm guessing you are talking about the Bipartisan action site? I thought most of the posts were very fair. Mr. Aveni has voted again and again against funding the CIP, Economic Development and most every budget. He supports charter schools. Those are public records. As for the street picture there are plenty more where that came from. Take a walk up my street – Portner. It's cracking up and chunks are coming out of it. Sidewalks are routinely patched with asphalt. It's a shambles.
I'm not following the 5% deal. Sounds like something you're wrapped around the axle on though.
November 4, 2014 at 11:16 am
Ok Andy, Here are my predictions, and the underlying rationale for them:
National: The GOP takes the senate tonight. Pickups called tonight are: AK, AR, WV, SD, IA, MT, which are the six net gains needed. Roberts holds in Kansas, and the Perdue wins in GA. I also predict an upset in either NC or NH, so net 7 for the night. LA goes to a run-off. This one is tough to call. With LA no longer the deciding seat, the DNC adjusts and pours money to Landrieu, so this one could stay in the D column.
VA Sentate: Warner either wins by two, or loses by two. The last public polls were released last Thursday, showed Warner up by 7, but the race had been tightening in Gilespie's favor, with 3% undecided, and 2% for "other". This close to the election, odds are the undecideds break away from the incumbent, as if he hasn't sealed the deal by this point, he won't. The question is, do they break for Gilllespie or Sarvis? Gillespie has a chance, albeit a slim one.
House National: The GOP will gain seats. Locally, Comstock wins by 10-12%
Manassas City Council: Bass, Aveni, Elston…and here's why:
-This election cycle favors Republicans for two reasons…it is a mid-term, and the President's approval ratings are in the toilet. Also, he's not on the ballot, so the D's are less motivated to turn out. Warner IS on the ballot, but he has been hurt a bit by the "Obama effect", and perhaps even a little by the whole judgeship thing. In his last Senate race, Warner got 66% of the vote. Today, he's barely polling at 50%. So, he may have some coattails for Elston and Ritche-Folks to ride, but they are small AND….may even be nuetralized by Comstocks coatails. Foust has run a horrible campaign. Even the WaPo has said he's nothing special. Comstock, on the other-hand, has run a near flawless campaign, all the way back to the firehouse primary. So, there's my analysis of the up-ticket impact on the locals, and this favors the GOP.
Sheryl Bass can count on the party faithful's vote since she is one of the nominees, plus a lot of the independent vote. Lack of a third "D" on the ballot, and I would suspect she pulls a lot of cross-over vote. I predict she will be the top vote-getter.
Marc Aveni can count on the party faithful vote as he too is one of the nominees. He can also count on the social and fiscal conservatives, who WILL turn out for him, and may even bullet-vote him. This coupled with strong overall GOP turnout (see above) is a pathway to victory.
Since there are two Democrats on the ballot, and one seat yet to be claimed, I call this one for Ken Elston. I think he will get the reliable D's, plus a bick chunk of the Moderate I's, and maybe even a portion of the "R"s who consider him as the third vote, if they want to cast a third vote.
I think Patricia Ritchie-Folks will again be disappointed. Sure, she'll get the reliable D's, but with everything above taken into account, there's more headwind than tailwind. Maybe 2016 will be her year.
Since the Schoolboard is unopposed, pretty easy prediction there.
November 4, 2014 at 3:40 pm
I think Steve is right on except I think Mr. Aveni has problems in the party faithful. Whether they are enough to cause him grief remains to be seen.
November 4, 2014 at 6:46 pm
Think Steve T. Is near the mark, but my guess is Warner
wiii pull it out in a closer race than expected.
November 5, 2014 at 4:06 am
Nailed it. Said Warner would win or lose by 2. Won by 1.5. Comstock stuns, but in the City, was right in the Margin I predicted, and Manassas continues to be a bell weather jurisdiction. City played out as predicted.
November 7, 2014 at 8:11 am
Mr. Johnson on Portner,
I live on Ewell Street in Old Town. I noticed while the Bipartisan group incorrectly posted a picture of a street indicating that it was in need of repair because a few grass stips were growning in the pavement, subsequently, the current photo of the same area showed that repairs had been made to that street. I also noticed that the street used as the example of disrepair also had curb, gutter and sidewalks. My section of Ewell Street (also in old town) does not even have any of those "improvements" but I still take the time to help the city keep the street looking nice. I am not ashamed of my street nor do I want the additional tax increase to install those. I think you should be happy that you have such niceities where you live. I think the next thing those people with sidewalks are looking for will be having the City clean the sidewalks after a snow. Just one of the differences between a conservitive and a liberal.
With respect to the 5%, I was quoting from the same 2011 ISO report the bipartisan committee used to say that the fire and rescue system was in dire needs and wasn't meeting standards. It's a funny thing about quoting from one of those reports, it's kinda like quoting scripture. You can find a verse in the bible that taken by itself can mean anything you want it to. If you take the time to read the entire ISO report, you will see that Manassas ranks in the top 5% of all fire departments in the Commonwealth. Sometimes, just sometimes, like in the bible, you must read the whole book or report and not just take a bullet point from a particular section. Again, my name is Mo Stokely and I live on Ewell Street in Manassas.